Predictions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Monte Carlo simulation of every tournament path, using our public Elo + Poisson statistical model.
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Group-by-group projections
Most likely winners and qualifiers in each group.
Projected to advance — each group's top 2 plus the 8 best third-placed teams.
Group AAdvance
- 1Mexico9pts89.9%
- 2South Korea6pts87.7%
- 3Czechia3pts66.1%
- 4South Africa0pts33.5%
Likely scorelines
Group BAdvance
- 1Switzerland9pts92.1%
- 2Canada6pts79.9%
- 3Bosnia and Herzegovina3pts60.6%
- 4Qatar0pts43.5%
Likely scorelines
Group DAdvance
- 1United States9pts89.9%
- 2Australia6pts77.8%
- 3Türkiye3pts68.0%
- 4Paraguay0pts40.9%
Likely scorelines
Group EAdvance
- 1Germany9pts99.5%
- 2Ecuador6pts77.8%
- 3Ivory Coast3pts67.7%
- 4Curaçao0pts22.5%
Likely scorelines
Group FAdvance
- 1Netherlands9pts98.1%
- 2Japan6pts83.9%
- 3Sweden3pts57.1%
- 4Tunisia0pts29.1%
Likely scorelines
Group HAdvance
- 1Spain9pts99.6%
- 2Uruguay6pts94.5%
- 3Cape Verde3pts30.7%
- 4Saudi Arabia0pts29.3%
Likely scorelines
Group KAdvance
- 1Portugal9pts98.7%
- 2Colombia6pts94.0%
- 3DR Congo3pts40.7%
- 4Uzbekistan0pts25.1%
Likely scorelines
Projected bracket
The single most likely knockout path from our model.
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Round of 32
Germany2
Czechia0
France2
Egypt0
South Korea1
Canada0
Netherlands1
Morocco0
Colombia0
Croatia1
Spain2
Austria0
United States1
Bosnia and Herzegovina0
Belgium2
Cape Verde0
Brazil2
Japan0
Ecuador0
Senegal1
Mexico1
Ivory Coast0
England2
DR Congo0
Argentina2
Uruguay0
Australia0
Iran1
Switzerland1
Norway0
Portugal2
Algeria0
Round of 16
Germany0
France1
South Korea0
Netherlands2
Croatia0
Spain1
United States0
Belgium1
Brazil2
Senegal0
Mexico0
England2
Argentina2
Iran0
Switzerland0
Portugal2
Quarter-final
France1
Netherlands0
Spain1
Belgium0
Brazil0
England1
Argentina1
Portugal0
Semi-final
France1
Spain0
England0
Argentina1
Final
France0
Argentina1
Champion
Argentina
Projected final standings
The model's single most-likely podium — first through fourth.
Most likely final & matchups
The projected final and the likeliest knockout pairings.
Most likely final
- ArgentinavsFrance7.1%
- ArgentinavsSpain7.0%
- EnglandvsFrance5.3%
- BrazilvsFrance4.3%
- EnglandvsSpain3.9%
Likely semi-finals
- SpainvsFrance16.1%
- ArgentinavsEngland14.5%
- ArgentinavsBrazil13.0%
- EnglandvsPortugal9.3%
- BelgiumvsFrance7.7%
- SpainvsNetherlands7.1%
Advancement odds
How far each team is projected to go.
| # | Team | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 76.3% | 66.1% | 49.0% | 29.9% | 18.4% |
| 2 | France | 88.1% | 64.7% | 46.5% | 28.5% | 16.9% |
| 3 | Spain | 78.5% | 56.7% | 42.7% | 25.3% | 14.7% |
| 4 | England | 83.3% | 64.1% | 42.2% | 23.2% | 12.2% |
| 5 | Brazil | 73.9% | 58.5% | 33.7% | 18.7% | 9.4% |
| 6 | Portugal | 78.5% | 60.1% | 30.9% | 17.2% | 8.2% |
| 7 | Netherlands | 63.7% | 51.3% | 26.5% | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| 8 | Germany | 82.1% | 37.1% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Belgium | 79.6% | 55.7% | 22.4% | 10.2% | 3.9% |
| 10 | Croatia | 64.9% | 35.7% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
Goals & scorelines
Projected scoring across the tournament.
Avg goals / match
2.89
Projected total goals
301
Most likely scoreline
1-0
16.1%
Highest scoring
2.31
Argentina
Best defense
0.65
Argentina
Methodology: 1500 simulated tournaments. Each match outcome sampled from a Poisson goals model with team Elo-derived attack rates, then ranked through the 12-group → R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Final bracket. Host bonus applied to USA / Canada / Mexico.
Statistical model output, not betting advice. Not affiliated with FIFA. Probabilities sum to 100% across all 48 teams (top 24 shown).