What if?
Simulate results and watch the projections shift. Pick group winners or apply a scenario — everything recomputes instantly in your browser.
Scenarios
Showing reality
Group-by-group projections
Set 1st / 2nd / 3rd place in each group.
Projected to advance — each group's top 2 plus the 8 best third-placed teams.
Group AAdvance
- Mexico✓90%
- South Korea✓88%
- Czechia✓66%
- South Africa33%
Group BAdvance
- Switzerland✓92%
- Canada✓80%
- Qatar44%
- Bosnia and Herzegovina✓61%
Group CAdvance
- Brazil✓100%
- Morocco✓93%
- Scotland✓64%
- Haiti11%
Group DAdvance
- United States✓90%
- Türkiye✓68%
- Australia✓78%
- Paraguay41%
Group EAdvance
- Germany✓100%
- Ecuador✓78%
- Ivory Coast✓68%
- Curaçao23%
Group FAdvance
- Netherlands✓98%
- Japan✓84%
- Sweden57%
- Tunisia29%
Group GAdvance
- Belgium✓99%
- Iran✓88%
- Egypt✓77%
- New Zealand9%
Group HAdvance
- Spain✓100%
- Uruguay✓94%
- Saudi Arabia29%
- Cape Verde31%
Group IAdvance
- France✓100%
- Senegal✓85%
- Norway✓70%
- Iraq13%
Group JAdvance
- Argentina✓100%
- Austria✓83%
- Algeria✓67%
- Jordan13%
Group KAdvance
- Portugal✓99%
- Colombia✓94%
- DR Congo41%
- Uzbekistan25%
Group LAdvance
- England✓100%
- Croatia✓98%
- Panama38%
- Ghana16%
Projected bracket
Click a team to send it through. Picks ripple to the next round.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-final
Semi-final
Final
Champion
Argentina
Projected final standings
The model's single most-likely podium — first through fourth.
Champion & Final
| Team | Champion | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 18.4% | 29.9% |
| France | 16.9% | 28.5% |
| Spain | 14.7% | 25.3% |
| England | 12.2% | 23.2% |
| Brazil | 9.4% | 18.7% |
| Portugal | 8.2% | 17.2% |
| Netherlands | 5.7% | 13.0% |
| Germany | 4.8% | 10.4% |
| Belgium | 3.9% | 10.2% |
| Croatia | 2.7% | 7.3% |
| Uruguay | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| Colombia | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| Morocco | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| United States | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| Switzerland | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Senegal | 0.1% | 1.2% |
Change vs the baseline forecast. Small moves (<0.3pp) are simulation noise and hidden.
Advancement odds
How far each team is projected to go.
| # | Team | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 76.3% | 66.1% | 49.0% | 29.9% | 18.4% |
| 2 | France | 88.1% | 64.7% | 46.5% | 28.5% | 16.9% |
| 3 | Spain | 78.5% | 56.7% | 42.7% | 25.3% | 14.7% |
| 4 | England | 83.3% | 64.1% | 42.2% | 23.2% | 12.2% |
| 5 | Brazil | 73.9% | 58.5% | 33.7% | 18.7% | 9.4% |
| 6 | Portugal | 78.5% | 60.1% | 30.9% | 17.2% | 8.2% |
| 7 | Netherlands | 63.7% | 51.3% | 26.5% | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| 8 | Germany | 82.1% | 37.1% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Belgium | 79.6% | 55.7% | 22.4% | 10.2% | 3.9% |
| 10 | Croatia | 64.9% | 35.7% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
Most likely final & matchups
The projected final and the likeliest knockout pairings.
Most likely final
- ArgentinavsFrance7.1%
- ArgentinavsSpain7.0%
- EnglandvsFrance5.3%
- BrazilvsFrance4.3%
- EnglandvsSpain3.9%
Likely semi-finals
- SpainvsFrance16.1%
- ArgentinavsEngland14.5%
- ArgentinavsBrazil13.0%
- EnglandvsPortugal9.3%
- BelgiumvsFrance7.7%
- SpainvsNetherlands7.1%
Goals & scorelines
Projected scoring across the tournament.
Avg goals / match
2.89
Projected total goals
301
Most likely scoreline
1-0
16.1%
Highest scoring
2.31
Argentina
Best defense
0.65
Argentina